Poll: Joe Biden, Donald Trump Statistically Tied in Arizona

The survey, taken September 28 to October 6, 2020, among 600 registered voters in Arizona, showed the former vice president leading Trump 48 percent to 45 percent — a lead well within the survey’s +/- four percent margin of error:

According to the survey, five percent of respondents remain undecided. It also found that a majority of Latino voters back Biden, 64 percent to the president’s 29 percent.

“Trump still holds an advantage among non-Hispanic white voters (+9),” the survey reported. “51% of non-Hispanic whites say they will vote or lean towards Trump, while 42% say they lean towards or will vote for Biden. 5% of non-Hispanic whites are undecided.”

Additionally, the survey found that 42 percent of Arizona voters said they would be “more likely” to support Biden if the Senate votes on a Supreme Court nominee, while 37 percent said they would be more likely to support the president.

Per the findings:

o We find that 40% of non-Hispanic whites and 27% of Latinos would be more likely to
support Trump and 36% of non-Hispanic whites and 57% of Latinos would be more likely
to support Biden if a SCOTUS nominee was voted on.

o Among respondents who are either leaning towards Trump or Biden or are undecided,
21% say they would be more likely to support Trump, while 42% would be more likely to
support Biden.

The survey also observed the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and her Democrat challenger Mark Kelly. He leads McSally by five percentage points — 47 percent to 42 percent.

A New York Times-Siena College poll released earlier this week showed Biden leading Trump in the Grand Canyon State 49 percent to 41 percent.

Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5 percent. Thursday’s RealClearPolitics average showed Biden up in the state by 3.1 percent.